UW Political Science Professors Offer Insights on the 2026 Midterm Elections

Understanding the 2026 Midterms: Expert Perspectives from the University of Washington

With ballots mailed to Washington residents and Election Day on November 3, 2026, the upcoming midterm elections are poised to be a significant event across the nation. From crucial congressional contests to prominent gubernatorial races and contentious ballot initiatives, many factors are at play. The University of Washington (UW) News recently engaged with two of its political science professors, James Long and Mark Smith, to delve into the trends, potential impacts, and historical context surrounding these elections.

Their insights provide a valuable lens through which students, parents, and educators can better understand the complexities of the democratic process. For those looking to deepen their understanding of civics and current events, resources like COSMIQ, a free voice-driven AI tutor, can offer accessible support for K-12 learners exploring topics from government structure to historical election data.

Key Races and Bellwether Indicators

Professors Long and Smith highlighted several specific races and initiatives they are closely monitoring, both within Washington state and nationally, that could signal broader political shifts.

Washington State Focus

• Congressional District 3: According to James Long, this race is particularly competitive. The incumbent Democrat, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who flipped the district in 2022 and won again in 2024, is running against Republican state senator John Braun. Long suggests that if Gluesenkamp Perez holds the seat by a healthy margin, it could be a significant indicator for how Democrats might perform in other close House races nationwide. Conversely, if Braun reclaims the district for Republicans, it could suggest that Republican losses across the country might not be as substantial as anticipated.
• Statewide Ballot Initiatives: Both professors are keenly observing the three controversial ballot initiatives in Washington. These initiatives, touching on topics like parental involvement in educational curriculum, trans athletes in K-12 schools, and taxation of the wealthy, reflect current national "culture war" divisions. Mark Smith specifically notes the initiative to repeal the millionaire's tax, explaining that its outcome could significantly impact the state legislature's projected budget for 2028, with potential downstream effects for the UW itself.

National Contests

Nationally, Mark Smith is particularly interested in the competitive Senate and governor's races in Ohio. He points out Ohio's historical role as a bellwether state, noting its strong shift towards Republican alignment since 2004. If Democrats secure wins in both Ohio races, which polling currently favors, it would be a noteworthy result. Smith also highlighted the potential significance of Democratic wins in other traditionally red states like Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas, suggesting these could indicate a broader trend.

Factors Influencing Voter Behavior and Historical Patterns

Understanding what drives voters to the polls and how historical trends might play out in 2026 is crucial for interpreting election results.

Impact of National Politics

James Long views the national Congressional races as largely a referendum on the incumbent president and Republican control of Congress. He notes that it is common for the party in power to be the focal point of midterm elections. Long also points to policies, including the war with Iran, tariffs, and the inability to address affordability, as factors that he says are deeply unpopular with the American people.

Voter Turnout and Demographics

Mark Smith discusses the historical drop in voter turnout—approximately 20%—between presidential and midterm years. He explains that while twenty years ago, midterm voters disproportionately favored Republicans, this trend has shifted. Based on recent off-year elections and current polling, Smith suggests that there will likely be more individuals who voted for the previous Republican presidential candidate in 2024 but will not vote in 2026, compared to those who voted for the previous Democratic vice president who might stay home.

Midterm Election History and Predictions

Historically, the president's party has lost an average of about 26 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate since World War II. However, according to Smith, regional polarization and gerrymandering have reduced the number of truly competitive House races. Despite this, Democrats only need a net gain of four seats in both the House and Senate to achieve a majority in each. Current polling and prediction markets, Smith notes, indicate that Democrats are likely to achieve these gains, particularly in the House. He points to Republican PACs redirecting funds to districts they would typically win easily as a sign that they anticipate a challenging election cycle.

Long adds that beyond simply gaining seats, the margin of victory within districts will also be an important measure of pro-Democratic Party support or anti-Republican sentiment. This, he believes, will inform candidates from both parties considering a run in the 2028 presidential cycle.

Key Issues for Voters and Election Security Concerns

The professors also addressed the most pressing issues for voters and the ongoing concerns regarding election security.

Voter Priorities: Affordability Dominates

According to James Long, affordability is the paramount concern for voters. He states that inflation, which he says is growing at a higher rate than when the previous Republican president took office, combined with other policies such as oil prices linked to the U.S. attack on Iran and tariffs, have negatively impacted American households. Long suggests that while Democrats may not have presented a universally popular alternative, the Republican brand, he says, has been declining in public favor. He cites candidates like Jon Ossoff, who is running for Senate reelection in Georgia, gaining popularity by connecting the affordability crisis to the previous Republican president and his allies, noting that many Americans have seen wages flatten while costs rise, and some political figures have seen significant wealth growth.

Mark Smith references Gallup data, which indicates that the most important problems facing the country are government/poor leadership (30%), high cost of living/inflation (13%), the economy in general (11%), immigration (10%), and war in the Middle East (7%). Smith suggests that the first three and the fifth issues generally favor Democrats, while immigration's impact is less clear without further information. He concludes that being the party in power when government performance is perceived as poor and essential costs are high is a challenging position.

Election Security Threats

Both professors acknowledge the seriousness of concerns regarding election security. Mark Smith notes that while attempts to restrict voting by mail have largely been unsuccessful in the courts, the possibility of future challenges remains. He cautions against complacency, citing the events of January 6th, and suggests that actions such as sending federal law enforcement to polling places or asserting widespread fraud after the election, particularly in close races, cannot be ruled out.

James Long emphasizes that explicit threats to election integrity should always be taken seriously, even if their success is not guaranteed. He points out that attempts to restrict voting and suppress turnout have largely been stopped by the courts. Long also states that should the Republican party experience significant losses, he believes the former president will likely claim the results are "rigged" and spread misinformation, a strategy he says is a "costless way to avoid admitting defeat" and remains popular with his base. However, Long stresses that any evidence of vote tampering should be investigated and adjudicated by the relevant judicial authorities. For students interested in the mechanics of elections and civics, the COSMIQ practice hub offers free resources to help understand governmental processes and historical events.

Conclusion

The insights from Professors Long and Smith offer a comprehensive look at the multifaceted nature of the 2026 midterm elections. From specific state-level contests to national political trends, economic concerns, and election security, their analysis provides valuable context for students, parents, and teachers seeking to understand the dynamics at play in this crucial election cycle. Staying informed about these issues is vital for engaged citizenship.