UW Research: Postal Delays Threaten Thousands of Washington Ballots in 2026 Election

As the 2026 general election approaches, a significant concern has emerged regarding the timely delivery and counting of ballots in Washington state. New research from the University of Washington (UW) indicates that recent changes in U.S. Postal Service (USPS) operations could put tens of thousands of ballots at risk of rejection. This development, highlighted in a research brief from the UW Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, underscores the importance of understanding how these changes might affect voter participation and election outcomes.

According to the UW research team, led by Scott W. Allard, professor of public policy and governance, the ongoing modifications to mail collection and processing by the USPS could potentially double the percentage of ballots that arrive too late to be counted. While Washington state law mandates that all ballots postmarked by Election Day be counted, the effectiveness of this system relies heavily on the Postal Service's postmarking practices. The findings suggest a critical need for voters, especially those in rural and outer suburban communities, to be aware of these potential delays and adjust their voting plans accordingly.

Understanding the Impact of USPS Changes

The core of the issue, according to the UW researchers, lies in the USPS's Regional Transportation Optimization (RTO) program. This initiative, part of a broader agency-wide modernization effort announced in 2021, has altered how mail is collected and processed. Specifically, mail in ZIP codes located more than 50 miles from a regional processing center is now collected only once a day. This means that a ballot mailed on Election Day might not receive its postmark until it reaches a processing facility the following day or even later, potentially leading to its rejection.

The RTO program was initially implemented in about two dozen Washington ZIP codes in February 2024 and has since expanded significantly across the state. The UW study points out that rural voters are disproportionately affected, with over 90% of rural voters who participated in the 2024 general election residing in an RTO ZIP code. This geographical disparity raises concerns about equitable access to the ballot box, as voters in these areas face a higher likelihood of their ballots being delayed.

The research brief, which has not yet undergone peer review but is slated for submission to an academic journal, analyzed voter-level ballot data and county-level rejection data from the Washington Secretary of State. The team found that between 2020 and 2025, approximately 11% of primary ballots and nearly 5% of general election ballots were postmarked before Election Day but not received until afterward. These are precisely the ballots most vulnerable to the current USPS delays, even though they would have been counted in previous elections.

Rising Rejection Rates and Voter Advice

The UW research provides compelling evidence of a direct link between the RTO implementation and an increase in late ballot rejection rates. Since 2024, when RTO began, the county average late ballot rejection rate across Washington has risen significantly. In the 2025 general election, this rate was 1.1% — approximately double the typical rate observed in general elections prior to RTO. For voters in RTO ZIP codes during that same election, the ballot rejection rate stood at 3.2%, which is more than double the rate for voters in urban areas.

Professor Allard projects that for the 2026 general election, the statewide rejection rate due to postal service delays could reach 1% to 1.5% of all ballots, which he describes as "unprecedented." This potential impact underscores the urgency for both voters and election officials to address these challenges proactively.

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Given these findings, the UW researchers offer practical advice for Washington voters: consider using official ballot dropboxes, which are not subject to postal delays, or mail your ballot at least a week before Election Day (Tuesday, November 3, 2026). For those who choose to mail their ballots closer to the deadline, Professor Allard suggests asking postal workers to hand-postmark the envelope on the spot at the post office.

Collaboration and Future Implications

The research brief was co-authored by Lauren Woyczynski, a UW doctoral student of sociology; Isaiah Wright, a UW doctoral student of public policy and governance; and Jacob Grumbach of the University of California, Berkeley. Their collaborative effort sheds light on a critical issue that could impact democratic participation in Washington state.

While the responsibility for addressing systemic mail delays ultimately rests with the Postal Service and policymakers, the UW study emphasizes that voters also have a role to play in ensuring their ballots are counted. By understanding the potential risks and taking proactive steps, Washington residents can help mitigate the impact of these postal changes on the 2026 general election.

The findings from the University of Washington serve as an important reminder of the intricate infrastructure supporting democratic processes and the need for vigilance in safeguarding every citizen's right to vote. As the election draws nearer, continued attention to these issues will be crucial for ensuring fair and accessible elections for all.