COSMIQ Research · Study #2 trend

College Completion Over Time

Name: College Completion Over Time
Creator: COSMIQ
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

How four-year state completion summaries changed across comparable IPEDS vintages.

Independent analysis by Dr. Matthew Lynch — former K-12 teacher, professor of education, and dean of a college of education. Updated 2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z.

Comparison: IPEDS 2021 → 2022; 51 of 51 state groups have a mean in both snapshots.

A single completion snapshot tells us where states stood in one cohort. This view keeps the same definition from Study #2 and applies it independently to each available IPEDS vintage, so readers can see whether a state's descriptive four-year institution average is improving, flat, or worsening. A change is labeled flat when it is smaller than half a percentage point; that threshold avoids treating one-decimal rounding as a meaningful trend.

State completion summaries over time

Mean completion is an unweighted average across qualifying four-year institutions. The coverage line under each value shows how many institutions met the 30-student cohort floor out of all four-year institutions in that vintage. A dash means IPEDS did not report a usable value for that state/vintage; “not comparable” is never treated as zero.

State	IPEDS 2021 mean · coverage	IPEDS 2022 mean · coverage	Change
Alaska	32.5% 4 qualifying / 6 four-year	34.8% 4 qualifying / 6 four-year	+2.3 pts · improving
Alabama	49.9% 24 qualifying / 32 four-year	50.7% 25 qualifying / 32 four-year	+0.8 pts · improving
Arkansas	45.5% 22 qualifying / 26 four-year	45.9% 23 qualifying / 28 four-year	+0.4 pts · flat
Arizona	54.7% 7 qualifying / 16 four-year	45.8% 8 qualifying / 17 four-year	-8.9 pts · worsening
California	62.2% 107 qualifying / 210 four-year	61.2% 110 qualifying / 209 four-year	-1.0 pts · worsening
Colorado	47.7% 26 qualifying / 32 four-year	48.6% 27 qualifying / 32 four-year	+0.9 pts · improving
Connecticut	67.2% 24 qualifying / 28 four-year	66.2% 24 qualifying / 28 four-year	-1.0 pts · worsening
District of Columbia	65.4% 8 qualifying / 14 four-year	65.5% 8 qualifying / 14 four-year	+0.1 pts · flat
Delaware	46.4% 5 qualifying / 6 four-year	43.8% 5 qualifying / 5 four-year	-2.6 pts · worsening
Florida	51.7% 75 qualifying / 97 four-year	51.1% 75 qualifying / 98 four-year	-0.6 pts · worsening
Georgia	44.1% 54 qualifying / 60 four-year	43.3% 53 qualifying / 62 four-year	-0.8 pts · worsening
Hawaii	48.7% 7 qualifying / 8 four-year	47.4% 7 qualifying / 8 four-year	-1.3 pts · worsening
Iowa	60.5% 28 qualifying / 36 four-year	61.0% 28 qualifying / 36 four-year	+0.5 pts · improving
Idaho	52.5% 10 qualifying / 10 four-year	54.4% 9 qualifying / 10 four-year	+1.9 pts · improving
Illinois	57.4% 56 qualifying / 89 four-year	57.6% 55 qualifying / 89 four-year	+0.2 pts · flat
Indiana	57.5% 44 qualifying / 56 four-year	58.0% 44 qualifying / 57 four-year	+0.5 pts · improving
Kansas	45.2% 28 qualifying / 32 four-year	46.8% 27 qualifying / 33 four-year	+1.6 pts · improving
Kentucky	48.9% 28 qualifying / 34 four-year	50.1% 28 qualifying / 34 four-year	+1.2 pts · improving
Louisiana	45.9% 24 qualifying / 30 four-year	46.8% 24 qualifying / 32 four-year	+0.9 pts · improving
Massachusetts	69.4% 65 qualifying / 86 four-year	68.0% 66 qualifying / 86 four-year	-1.4 pts · worsening
Maryland	60.3% 27 qualifying / 33 four-year	59.2% 27 qualifying / 33 four-year	-1.1 pts · worsening
Maine	57.5% 17 qualifying / 20 four-year	61.6% 11 qualifying / 12 four-year	+4.1 pts · improving
Michigan	55.0% 49 qualifying / 60 four-year	55.2% 46 qualifying / 60 four-year	+0.2 pts · flat
Minnesota	64.0% 37 qualifying / 45 four-year	64.1% 37 qualifying / 46 four-year	+0.1 pts · flat
Missouri	52.6% 44 qualifying / 65 four-year	54.2% 47 qualifying / 69 four-year	+1.6 pts · improving
Mississippi	45.1% 15 qualifying / 17 four-year	45.8% 15 qualifying / 17 four-year	+0.7 pts · improving
Montana	45.2% 11 qualifying / 14 four-year	42.1% 13 qualifying / 15 four-year	-3.1 pts · worsening
North Carolina	53.3% 52 qualifying / 66 four-year	52.6% 54 qualifying / 66 four-year	-0.7 pts · worsening
North Dakota	41.4% 14 qualifying / 14 four-year	45.3% 14 qualifying / 14 four-year	+3.9 pts · improving
Nebraska	57.5% 18 qualifying / 22 four-year	57.2% 19 qualifying / 22 four-year	-0.3 pts · flat
New Hampshire	57.3% 12 qualifying / 16 four-year	56.8% 12 qualifying / 16 four-year	-0.5 pts · worsening
New Jersey	61.3% 31 qualifying / 55 four-year	60.7% 31 qualifying / 55 four-year	-0.6 pts · worsening
New Mexico	39.1% 11 qualifying / 12 four-year	38.8% 11 qualifying / 12 four-year	-0.3 pts · flat
Nevada	38.0% 7 qualifying / 11 four-year	39.7% 7 qualifying / 11 four-year	+1.7 pts · improving
New York	60.6% 143 qualifying / 221 four-year	58.8% 147 qualifying / 226 four-year	-1.8 pts · worsening
Ohio	47.1% 94 qualifying / 111 four-year	47.3% 94 qualifying / 113 four-year	+0.2 pts · flat
Oklahoma	39.2% 26 qualifying / 30 four-year	37.5% 26 qualifying / 30 four-year	-1.7 pts · worsening
Oregon	59.5% 19 qualifying / 32 four-year	61.6% 20 qualifying / 29 four-year	+2.1 pts · improving
Pennsylvania	64.3% 98 qualifying / 129 four-year	57.1% 122 qualifying / 144 four-year	-7.2 pts · worsening
Rhode Island	72.3% 10 qualifying / 13 four-year	72.4% 10 qualifying / 13 four-year	+0.1 pts · flat
South Carolina	49.1% 36 qualifying / 39 four-year	48.8% 35 qualifying / 38 four-year	-0.3 pts · flat
South Dakota	49.7% 12 qualifying / 15 four-year	48.9% 12 qualifying / 16 four-year	-0.8 pts · worsening
Tennessee	54.7% 38 qualifying / 51 four-year	53.8% 37 qualifying / 51 four-year	-0.9 pts · worsening
Texas	45.0% 94 qualifying / 126 four-year	44.9% 94 qualifying / 128 four-year	-0.1 pts · flat
Utah	50.0% 11 qualifying / 12 four-year	52.5% 11 qualifying / 12 four-year	+2.5 pts · improving
Virginia	62.0% 41 qualifying / 55 four-year	58.7% 42 qualifying / 56 four-year	-3.3 pts · worsening
Vermont	61.8% 10 qualifying / 15 four-year	63.5% 8 qualifying / 15 four-year	+1.7 pts · improving
Washington	47.5% 51 qualifying / 60 four-year	46.8% 51 qualifying / 60 four-year	-0.7 pts · worsening
Wisconsin	58.4% 37 qualifying / 49 four-year	56.8% 38 qualifying / 49 four-year	-1.6 pts · worsening
West Virginia	44.6% 19 qualifying / 23 four-year	44.1% 18 qualifying / 22 four-year	-0.5 pts · worsening
Wyoming	41.0% 5 qualifying / 5 four-year	41.6% 5 qualifying / 5 four-year	+0.6 pts · improving

Download trend CSV Download trend JSON

Snapshot provenance and scope

IPEDS 2021retrieved 2026-08-30T14:05:03.873Z · 2,344 four-year institutions in scope · 440 missing/suppressed rates · 50 ranked state groups
IPEDS 2022retrieved 2026-08-06T21:41:25.672Z · 2,371 four-year institutions in scope · 436 missing/suppressed rates · 50 ranked state groups

Each snapshot is also preserved at institution level. These links make it possible to audit a state change, including institutions that entered or left the active directory and rates that were missing or suppressed:

IPEDS 2021: CSV · JSON
IPEDS 2022: CSV · JSON

Methodology and limitations

Same rule in every vintage: include active, degree-granting public and private-nonprofit IPEDS institutions; exclude for-profit institutions and administrative-only units. State summaries use four-year institutions only.
Cohort and ranking coverage: an institution contributes to a state mean only when its 150%-time completion rate is reported and its adjusted cohort has at least 30 students. A state is rankable only with at least five such institutions. The trend table shows all state groups, including those that are information-only.
Vintage changes are visible: directory membership, reporting counts, qualifying counts, and cohort totals are included for every vintage in the trend CSV/JSON and in each institution-level snapshot. A state’s change can reflect institution-scope or reporting changes as well as actual completion differences; it is not a causal estimate.
Missing values stay missing: suppressed or absent IPEDS rates are represented as null in JSON, blank in CSV, and “—” on this page. No rate is imputed, and a missing endpoint is not interpreted as a decline.
Retrieval timestamps: every snapshot records its IPEDS vintage and successful source retrieval timestamp. The source data portal and the raw institution rows are provided in the downloads for independent checking.

These are descriptive institution-level summaries, not official state accountability ratings. Differences in admissions, student populations, program mix, transfer patterns, and institution coverage can all affect the comparison.

← Back to Study #2